Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f8f…2ebc sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-10%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$7
crypto 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 31% -27.6%
≤30d 16 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 31% -27.6%
≤90d 16 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 31% -27.6%
all 16 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 31% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 31% -27.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 31% -34.5%
15% -35.6% 19% -40.8%
20% -41.9% 19% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Yes 42¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 −$6 -42%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4 +$3 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 63¢ $7 2m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 37¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 18¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 76¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 57¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 89¢ $3 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 42¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 30¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 24¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 15¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 24¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 33¢ $3 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming $3 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming $1 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $2 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 12¢ $1 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $1 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 41¢ $3 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 44¢ $4 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 42¢ $1 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 20¢ $3 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming $2 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 26¢ $2 7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 43¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.49 · official $6.49 (match) · 54 history records