Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f90…8ed1 sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,844 (-9%) realized −$20,736 · open +$4,892
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%43W / 36L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,252per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$1,926est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16,732
7 days−$25,984
14 days−$9,577
30 days−$30,963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12,318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -61.9% -65.5% 20% 20% -82.5%
≤30d 59 -36.5% -42.6% 42% 31% -33.8%
≤90d 79 -18.0% -25.8% 54% 44% -19.1%
all 79 -18.0% -25.8% 54% 44% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 44% -19.1%
10% -32.9% 35% -26.8%
15% ← realistic here -39.4% 25% -33.9%
20% -45.3% 16% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$3,019) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$889 vs −$1,540 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$15,435
Realized−$20,736
Unrealized+$4,892
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses43 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,926
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2,252
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 66¢ 100¢ $10,263 $15,434 +$5,171 (+50%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 35¢ 0¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1,484 −$774 -52%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $9,968 +$409 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $262 −$262 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $573 −$573 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $15,360 −$15,360 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $366 +$254 +69%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $212 +$48 +23%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Valorant: BOOM Esports vs Sharper Esport - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 12 $675 −$314 -46%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $958 −$958 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,850 −$852 -30%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 12 $6,099 −$6,099 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $253 +$179 +71%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $12,700 +$9,683 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9,469 +$3,228 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $4,696 +$2,959 +63%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $2,043 +$105 +5%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $4,400 +$218 +5%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster Academy vs Top Esports Challenger (BO1) - Asia Jun 08 $740 +$210 +28%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$7 +38%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $8 −$3 -38%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $485 −$485 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $115 +$54 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $1,242 +$642 +52%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Masters E May 30 $532 +$3 +0%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 30 $503 +$131 +26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $235 +$97 +41%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $188 +$67 +36%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO5) - ESL Challenger League North Americ May 29 $132 +$13 +10%
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challen May 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 4 Winner May 25 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $175 −$175 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 25 $288 −$288 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 25 $363 −$363 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 25 $1,477 −$40 -3%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs TEC Esports - Map 1 Winner May 25 $322 −$23 -7%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix - Map 2 Winner May 25 $797 $0 +0%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup America May 24 $841 −$739 -88%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 24 $3,869 +$2,448 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 24 $236 +$16 +7%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 24 $1,255 −$1,255 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 24 $4,935 −$4,935 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $2,394 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $55 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $115 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $48 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $28 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $2,945 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $92 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $340 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $378 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $511 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $81 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $2,333 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $19 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $55 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $13 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $56 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $495 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $29 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $164 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $97 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,434.56 · official $15,434.56 (match) · 818 history records