Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8F 0x8f93…bffa sports 780 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,978 (-7%) realized −$15,679 · open −$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%459W / 318L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$3,108est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$887now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days−$2,105
14 days−$4,147
30 days−$4,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$12,552
other 1% −$253
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 60% -16.7%
≤30d 148 -8.5% -17.2% 57% 53% -17.1%
≤90d 777 -3.5% -12.7% 59% 49% -14.4%
all 777 -3.5% -12.7% 59% 49% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 49% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 34% -22.6%
15% -28.7% 18% -30.1%
20% -35.7% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$134 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$887
Realized−$15,679
Unrealized−$299
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses459 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$3,108
Open positions3
Markets (closed)777 / 780
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$276
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 777 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 80¢ 62¢ $568 $438 −$129 (-23%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 62¢ 100¢ $139 $225 +$86 (+61%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 34¢ $479 $224 −$255 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $104 +$54 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $726 +$274 +38%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$125 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $556 −$198 -36%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $323 +$177 +55%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $481 +$219 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $204 −$15 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $407 +$93 +23%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $255 +$30 +12%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $534 +$306 +57%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $386 −$382 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$106 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $303 +$114 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $982 −$147 -15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$35 +18%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $109 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,696 +$385 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,162 −$1,155 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $272 +$91 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $164 −$163 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$63 +62%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $395 −$391 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,630 −$1,180 -72%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $308 −$304 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $279 +$121 +44%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $569 +$131 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $328 +$172 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $255 +$145 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $746 +$254 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $402 +$74 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $284 +$216 +76%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $311 +$33 +11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $402 −$15 -4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $379 +$159 +42%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $203 −$27 -13%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 08 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 08 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $191 −$191 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $302 +$86 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 75¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 75¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 75¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 75¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 75¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 75¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 63¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 76¢ $382 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 62¢ $132 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 61¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 83¢ $344 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 65¢ $104 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $330 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $358 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $556 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $726 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 64¢ $323 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $101 3d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 68¢ $481 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $189 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $101 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $204 4d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL Monte 100¢ $285 4d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL HOTU 100¢ $840 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $407 4d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 65¢ $386 4d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 89¢ $255 4d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 63¢ $353 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.22 · official $887.22 (match) · 3500 history records