Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f99…df9e crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$388 (-5%) realized −$427 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%49W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day64.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$63
14 days−$346
30 days−$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +1.0% -8.6% 51% 46% -6.6%
≤30d 101 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 101 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 44% -14.3%
all 101 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 44% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 44% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 40% -22.5%
15% -26.5% 32% -30.0%
20% -33.7% 26% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$30 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized−$427
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses49 / 52
Open positions7
Markets (closed)101 / 108
History coverage10d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 37¢ 50¢ $75 $101 +$26 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $85 $93 +$9 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $79 $87 +$8 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 17¢ 50¢ $22 $64 +$42 (+196%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 54¢ 50¢ $47 $44 −$3 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $194 −$23 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $121 −$37 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $71 +$38 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $211 −$39 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $154 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $118 −$26 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $91 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$50 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$41 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$30 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$16 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$5 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$26 +328%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$5 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $46 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$9 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $42 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $39 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $42 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $41 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $46 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $49 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $49 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $41 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $57 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $47 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $45 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $48 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $49 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $38 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $39 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $38 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $33 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $56 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $54 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $48 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $55 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $39 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.01 · official $520.76 · 802 history records