Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f9c…eeb3
sports · 235 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$88 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$90 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses94 / 96
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions45
Markets (closed)190 / 235
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day73.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 45 History 190 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 64¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+87%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+165%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 42¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+138%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 53¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 16¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 59¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 44¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 79¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? No 29¢ 31¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Down 48¢ 51¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$2 -66%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +203%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +222%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 +$1 +95%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +143%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 +$1 +69%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -73%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 +$1 +99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -11%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2 −$1 -41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $1 −$1 -59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +78%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 +$1 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$79
other 20% −$8
politics 3% +$1
world 3% +$2
crypto 2% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 37m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $1 40m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka SELL England 99¢ $1 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 99¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 86¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 82¢ $0 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY England 97¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 66¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 29¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 66¢ $1 4h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 32¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -17.2% -25.1% 49% 41% -25.1%
≤30d 190 -17.2% -25.1% 49% 41% -25.1%
≤90d 190 -17.2% -25.1% 49% 41% -25.1%
all 190 -17.2% -25.1% 49% 41% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 41% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 33% -32.3%
15% -38.8% 27% -38.8%
20% -44.8% 21% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.67 · official $58.47 (match) · 610 history records