Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f9c…02eb other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+5%) realized +$4 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$86
crypto 10% −$23
sports 1% +$5
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +31.1% +18.7% 58% 53% -0.6%
≤30d 19 +31.1% +18.7% 58% 53% -0.6%
≤90d 21 +18.7% +7.4% 52% 48% -1.2%
all 27 +2.1% -7.7% 44% 41% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 41% -4.3%
10% -16.5% 41% -13.5%
15% -24.6% 37% -21.9%
20% -32.0% 26% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage110d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $98 $134 +$35 (+36%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $78 +$44 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 −$28 -72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 +$11 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$35 +144%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$32 +46%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $2 +$9 +376%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 01 $3 −$1 -36%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 +$2 +96%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 01 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 01 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 01 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $24 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $19 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $19 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.72 · official $188.72 (match) · 63 history records