Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f9e…6d32 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 31L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$301
7 days+$510
14 days+$510
30 days+$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$121
sports 30% −$25
weather 4% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 39% -0.7%
≤30d 18 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 39% -0.7%
≤90d 42 -22.9% -30.3% 45% 33% -7.6%
all 54 -19.9% -27.5% 43% 31% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 31% -9.3%
10% -34.5% 19% -18.0%
15% -40.8% 17% -25.9%
20% -46.6% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$26 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage222d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $550 +$160 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $136 −$84 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$36 -71%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $684 −$12 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $656 +$53 +8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$25 +17%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $293 +$28 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $540 +$42 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $544 +$46 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 +$51 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $461 +$32 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $352 +$64 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -64%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $361 +$39 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $251 +$116 +46%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Apr 14 $23 −$13 -54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ap Apr 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ap Apr 14 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ap Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ap Apr 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Apr Apr 13 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 13 $3 +$6 +222%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 13 $8 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 10 $76 −$68 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 9? Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 9? Apr 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 9? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 10? Apr 10 $17 −$14 -80%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-20? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? Apr 10 $39 −$23 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 9? Apr 10 $15 +$43 +290%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? Nov 23 $108 −$95 -88%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-20? Nov 20 $125 −$73 -58%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? Nov 20 $89 −$2 -2%
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-20? Nov 20 $4 $0 -5%
Will EC Bahia vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will EC Juventude win on 2025-11-20? Nov 20 $77 +$16 +21%
Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-19? Nov 20 $42 +$38 +92%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-19? Nov 20 $4 −$2 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 97¢ $66 59m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 97¢ $166 59m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 97¢ $19 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 97¢ $11 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 97¢ $401 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $550 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 22¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 58¢ $75 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $61 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 13¢ $15 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 43¢ $51 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 88¢ $671 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 89¢ $684 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $59 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $650 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $641 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 93¢ $176 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $56 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 79¢ $151 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 77¢ $315 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $121 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records