Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fa0…6b80
world · 82 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage531d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $31 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $61 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $175 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $73 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $15 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $36 −$3 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $2 $0 +2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $126 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% −$4
other 22% −$1
politics 18% $0
sports 9% −$4
economics 7% $0
crypto 3% +$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $16 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $9 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $8 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $13 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $13 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $19 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $12 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $20 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $16 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.8% 22% 11% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 61 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 2% -9.6%
all 80 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.62 · official $13.51 (match) · 292 history records