Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8faa…1b5c crypto 164 markets active 18h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$399 (+11%) realized +$382 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%62W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$379
14 days+$415
30 days+$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$251
other 15% +$87
crypto 14% −$10
world 1% −$38
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +22.8% +11.1% 42% 42% +14.6%
≤30d 114 +13.5% +2.7% 46% 46% +12.4%
≤90d 157 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 39% -2.1%
all 157 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 39% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 39% -2.1%
10% -21.1% 32% -11.4%
15% -28.7% 29% -20.0%
20% -35.7% 25% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$382
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses62 / 95
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions7
Markets (closed)157 / 164
History coverage90d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$98 +64%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$7 -6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $148 +$117 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$40 +39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $101 +$67 +66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $80 +$17 +22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$71 +737%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $51 +$45 +89%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $8 +$49 +596%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$45 +437%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -86%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -95%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $15 −$13 -86%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -82%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -30%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 −$80 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$1 -9%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $71 +$39 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $45 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $250 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $152 28h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 35¢ $95 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 28h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $102 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $265 47h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 89¢ $141 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $148 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $168 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $98 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $80 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 5d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.72 · official $226.72 (match) · 393 history records