Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fab…3cab sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$12 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$46
other 14% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.2% -37.8% 29% 29% -16.3%
≤30d 7 -31.2% -37.8% 29% 29% -16.3%
≤90d 7 -31.2% -37.8% 29% 29% -16.3%
all 7 -31.2% -37.8% 29% 29% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 29% -16.3%
10% -43.7% 29% -24.3%
15% -49.1% 14% -31.6%
20% -54.1% 14% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$32 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 32¢ 30¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $115 −$30 -26%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $109 −$20 -18%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $77 +$25 +33%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 −$7 -13%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $114 +$92 +80%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $174 −$54 -31%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 21¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Talia Gibson 12¢ $11 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $17 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 22¢ $20 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $37 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $37 1h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $15 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $44 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Talia Gibson 21¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 46¢ $19 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $51 2h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 56¢ $70 2h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 54¢ $69 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 32¢ $51 2h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Alex de Minaur 36¢ $25 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 43¢ $44 2h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 36¢ $25 3h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Brandon Nakashima 47¢ $77 3h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $17 16h
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $10 16h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $26 16h
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $51 16h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 30¢ $51 16h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $51 16h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $207 21h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 55¢ $64 40h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 22¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 43¢ $115 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $22 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 38¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.61 · official $158.61 (match) · 33 history records