Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fae…f25b
other · 1598 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$23 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1592 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1594 / 1598
History coverage83d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 4 History 1594 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? No 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? No 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jonathan David: 4+ shots on target Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Jonathan Osorio: 1+ shots on target Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Park vs. Oh: Total Games O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: Sato (-1.5) vs Polcanova (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Amar Dedić: 1+ goals + assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Stephen Eustáquio: 1+ goals + assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC 1 - 3 Drogheda United FC? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Promise David: 2+ goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Waterford FC 3 - 3 Sligo Rovers FC? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Vagramov vs. Miroshnichenko: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Havlickova vs. Hennemann: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Havlickova vs Hennemann Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-6.5) vs G2 Ares (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Mettraux vs. Stankovic: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Mia Horvit vs. Emma Ottavia Ghirardato: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Mettraux vs. Stankovic: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Iatcenko vs. Milanese: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Panshina vs. Saito: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Men Maanshan: Completed Match: Dong Ju Kim vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Patrik Schick: 2+ shots on target Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Paul Waring finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Hwang Heechan: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals + assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Jake Mangum: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Sam Huff: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Randy Arozarena: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Dansby Swanson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will RH Q1 revenue be above $800M? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will RH Q1 revenue be above $850M? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Luis Romo: 1+ goals Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$15
sports 48% +$6
politics 1% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jonathan David: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Jonathan Osorio: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Game Handicap: Sato (-1.5) vs Polcanova (+1.5) BUY Sato 99¢ $5 1h
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Park vs. Oh: Total Games O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
Amar Dedić: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Stephen Eustáquio: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Canada to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Promise David: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC 1 - 3 Drogheda United FC? BUY No 100¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Waterford FC 3 - 3 Sligo Rovers FC? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Spirit 100¢ $5 4h
Vagramov vs. Miroshnichenko: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY 9z 100¢ $5 4h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5) BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $5 6h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY Vitality 100¢ $5 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? BUY Sri Lanka 100¢ $5 7h
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 100¢ $5 9h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 9h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 10h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY FURIA 100¢ $5 12h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 12h
Set 2 Winner: Havlickova vs Hennemann BUY Hennemann 99¢ $5 13h
Havlickova vs. Hennemann: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 13h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-6.5) vs G2 Ares (+6.5) BUY G2 Ares 100¢ $5 14h
Mettraux vs. Stankovic: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 770 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 1594 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
all 1594 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.99 · official $18.99 (match) · 3500 history records