Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fae…f8fd politics 43 markets active 5h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$19
other 9% −$1
sports 2% +$12
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 20% 20% +1.1%
≤30d 15 +5.4% -4.6% 13% 7% -6.4%
≤90d 32 +5.4% -4.6% 19% 6% -8.5%
all 41 +4.2% -5.8% 22% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -14.8% 5% -18.3%
15% -23.0% 5% -26.2%
20% -30.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage601d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 09 $4 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $21 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $457 −$3 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,845 −$8 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $1,568 −$5 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 24 $1,576 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 4h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 6h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 23h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 26h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $8 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.82 · official $46.82 (match) · 264 history records