Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fb4…d080
sports · 1296 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$228 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$183 · open −$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$199
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses658 / 617
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1275 / 1296
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day99.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 36 History 1275 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$908
7 days−$661
14 days−$384
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 53¢ 96¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+83%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 91¢ 91¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 69¢ 100¢ $11 $15 +$5 (+44%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 77¢ 73¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 56¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+78%)
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Petr Brunclik 49¢ 53¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 90¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 53¢ 55¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 80¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 47¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 80¢ 67¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 36¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Virtus.pro 51¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+96%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Tatiana Prozorova 57¢ 84¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 51¢ 66¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 79¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 27¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 67¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+56%)
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Daniil Medvedev 84¢ 59¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Leyre Romero Gormaz 58¢ 36¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 24¢ 22¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Mauthausen: Lukas Neumayer vs Laslo Djere Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bronzetti vs. Osorio: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Charaeva vs Korpatsch Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Walczaki (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yu Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Jun 12 $2 −$1 -54%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 12 $3 −$1 -49%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP R Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 12 $7 −$11 -164%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Citadel Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Magdalena Frech Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Sinner vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Aix en Provence: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Saint-Malo: Sofia Costoulas vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% +$886
other 9% +$40
world 0% +$6
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $2 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 27¢ $2 18m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 32¢ $2 22m
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 59¢ $3 25m
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $5 25m
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 58¢ $3 27m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 65¢ $4 28m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $1 33m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $0 33m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 58¢ $3 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $2 38m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $4 42m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 61¢ $3 46m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $2 46m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $3 47m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 67¢ $4 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $3 48m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 31¢ $2 48m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 29¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 58¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $3 1h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 84¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 613 -19.9% -27.6% 43% 40% -26.9%
≤30d 1275 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 49% -11.5%
≤90d 1275 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 49% -11.5%
all 1275 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 49% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover99.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 49% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 45% -20.0%
15% -26.3% 36% -27.7%
20% -33.5% 27% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.78 · official $198.68 (match) · 3500 history records