trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -11.5% | -20.0% | 11% | 11% | +32.7% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -21.4% | -28.9% | 8% | 8% | +30.2% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -21.4% | -28.9% | 8% | 8% | +30.2% |
| all | 13 | -21.4% | -28.9% | 8% | 8% | +30.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.9% | 8% | +30.2% |
| 10% | -35.7% | 8% | +17.7% |
| 15% | -41.9% | 8% | +6.4% |
| 20% | -47.6% | 8% | -4.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $85 | $69 | −$16 (-18%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Jun 26 | $44 | −$7 | -16% |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | Jun 25 | $110 | −$16 | -15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | Jun 25 | $10 | −$3 | -32% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $189 | −$163 | -87% |
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | Jun 24 | $100 | −$27 | -27% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $243 | +$670 | +276% |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E | Jun 23 | $101 | −$50 | -49% |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? | Jun 23 | $22 | −$16 | -73% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o | Jun 20 | $4 | −$3 | -82% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$1 | -22% |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Ch | Jun 15 | $8 | −$3 | -35% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | Jun 14 | $9 | −$2 | -17% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |