Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fbd…a959 weather 464 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3458 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23,522 (+262%) realized +$25,026 · open −$1,504
Gross ROI / mkt +241% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +162% what you keep after slip
Net edge+162%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3458.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25,193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% +$630
other 46% −$1,230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3458 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+208.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +240.6% +208.1% 71% 43% +168.4%
≤30d 21 +240.6% +208.1% 71% 43% +168.4%
≤90d 21 +240.6% +208.1% 71% 43% +168.4%
all 21 +240.6% +208.1% 71% 43% +168.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3458.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +208.1% 43% +168.4%
10% ← realistic here +178.6% 38% +142.7%
15% +151.7% 38% +119.3%
20% +127.0% 38% +97.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +193% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +241% · $-wt +193% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +273% → late +211% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$8 · ×8.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.61 per $1 lost it wins $20.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25,193
Realized+$25,026
Unrealized−$1,504
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Open positions480
Markets (closed)21 / 464
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3458.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 480 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $312 $824 +$512 (+164%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $225 $600 +$376 (+167%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $168 $555 +$387 (+230%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 24? Yes 16¢ $301 $513 +$212 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $209 $507 +$298 (+143%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 24? Yes 47¢ 62¢ $380 $492 +$112 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Yes 59¢ 89¢ $319 $484 +$165 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $111 $481 +$370 (+333%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $98 $476 +$377 (+384%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? Yes 41¢ 96¢ $175 $406 +$231 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $308 $359 +$51 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Yes 23¢ 66¢ $123 $354 +$230 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $329 $352 +$23 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $147 $351 +$203 (+138%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $220 $343 +$122 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $362 $316 −$46 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 24? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $292 $295 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Yes 45¢ 59¢ $219 $288 +$70 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Yes 46¢ 49¢ $265 $285 +$20 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 24? Yes 47¢ 54¢ $248 $282 +$34 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $162 $276 +$115 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $251 $276 +$25 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $102 $275 +$173 (+169%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $266 $246 −$20 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 25? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $220 $243 +$23 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 1? Jun 24 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? Jun 24 $0 +$10 +10380%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 24 $1 −$10 -1707%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 24 $1 −$11 -2076%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 24 $0 +$1 +476%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 24 $0 −$1 -307%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 24 $1 −$7 -1209%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 20? Jun 24 $0 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 24 $0 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $107 +$296 +278%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $71 +$109 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$213 +702%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $33 −$16 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$12 +390%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$133 +1323%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $124 +$157 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY Yes $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes $0 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,192.91 · official $25,208.66 (match) · 3500 history records