Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fbf…2447 crypto 1434 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (739 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$56 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate76%1101W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day738.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$116
other 17% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (739 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1449 -4.2% -13.4% 76% 58% -11.9%
≤30d 1449 -4.2% -13.4% 76% 58% -11.9%
≤90d 1449 -4.2% -13.4% 76% 58% -11.9%
all 1449 -4.2% -13.4% 76% 58% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover738.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 58% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 28% -20.3%
15% -29.2% 10% -28.0%
20% -36.2% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1101 / 348
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1449 / 1434
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day738.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 267 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$12 -311%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$13 -38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +43%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$7 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$5 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 14m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 17m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $19 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 25m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 25m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.31 · official $70.04 · 3500 history records