Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fc0…ee45 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$210 (-11%) realized −$218 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 35% −$141
world 30% −$23
other 17% −$21
sports 8% +$4
economics 7% −$6
politics 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +38.0% +24.8% 100% 100% +24.8%
≤30d 1 +38.0% +24.8% 100% 100% +24.8%
≤90d 12 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 25% -13.1%
all 25 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 24% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 24% -19.6%
10% -29.7% 12% -27.3%
15% -36.4% 8% -34.3%
20% -42.7% 4% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage108d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $41 +$8 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-18? Apr 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $47 −$14 -30%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $52 −$5 -9%
CA Platense vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $53 −$2 -3%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? Apr 12 $51 +$3 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 12 $140 +$30 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 11 $90 −$48 -53%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 10 $78 +$12 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 10 $78 +$18 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 10 $176 −$116 -66%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 09 $272 +$53 +19%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 09 $24 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 09 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Iran strike Jordan in March? Mar 09 $85 −$60 -71%
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? Mar 09 $129 −$6 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 06 $67 +$5 +8%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 05 $168 −$6 -4%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 04 $131 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $7 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $7 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 21¢ $8 57d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 61¢ $5 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 50¢ $3 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 47¢ $2 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 45¢ $5 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 47¢ $5 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 46¢ $5 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 47¢ $5 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 44¢ $5 62d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 46¢ $6 62d
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 67d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 67d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 67d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 10¢ $47 67d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 68d
CA Platense vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 68d
CA Platense vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $50 68d
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 40¢ $51 68d
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 41¢ $53 68d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 65¢ $54 68d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 65¢ $54 68d
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $54 68d
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 68d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY Yes $42 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.06 · official $41.06 (match) · 85 history records