Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8F 0x8fc3…2aea other 7 markets active 3h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$501 (-11%) realized −$491 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$652per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$592
14 days−$544
30 days−$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$550
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.5% -27.1% 0% 0% -29.3%
≤30d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 0% -22.5%
≤90d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 0% -22.5%
all 6 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 0% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -22.5%
10% -19.4% 0% -29.9%
15% -27.2% 0% -36.7%
20% -34.4% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$296 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$790
Realized−$491
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage20d
Avg bet$652
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $800 $790 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,458 −$550 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $251 −$42 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,002 +$46 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $16 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $300 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $502 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $389 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $209 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $504 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $209 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,311 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $251 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $122 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $49 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $40 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $49 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $56 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $52 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $251 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $502 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,048 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,002 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.31 · official $790.31 (match) · 36 history records