Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fc5…107f sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 559d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$30
other 26% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 70 -11.7% -20.1% 20% 0% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 0% -14.0%
10% -27.8% 0% -22.2%
15% -34.8% 0% -29.7%
20% -41.2% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage559d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Jun 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Apr 09 $80 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Dec 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? Nov 04 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19? Oct 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 October 6-12? Oct 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 11 $31 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $0 $0 -53%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Feb 11 $5 $0 +8%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Feb 11 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Feb 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -5%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -12%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -11%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -11%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -11%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -11%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -10%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -8%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -6%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -6%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -6%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -6%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -5%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $80 64d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $80 152d
Ethereum all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $80 177d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $80 233d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $80 233d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $80 237d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 246d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 246d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $30 251d
Will Solana reach $300 October 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $30 257d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? SELL No 99¢ $30 257d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $31 266d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 500d
Solana above $215 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 531d
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? BUY No 99¢ $13 531d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? BUY No 92¢ $5 531d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 90¢ $5 531d
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 556d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 558d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 558d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 558d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $5 558d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 558d
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 558d
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 558d
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 558d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 558d
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 558d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.84 · official $79.84 (match) · 151 history records