Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fc8…18ff other 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%101W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$93
14 days+$28
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$78
sports 29% +$55
crypto 5% +$8
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +12.3% +1.6% 74% 47% +1.0%
≤30d 160 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 42% -10.1%
≤90d 161 -1.1% -10.5% 63% 42% -10.0%
all 161 -1.1% -10.5% 63% 42% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 42% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 27% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 18% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses101 / 60
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)161 / 174
History coverage47d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $141 $137 −$4 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $55 $50 −$4 (-8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 61¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? No 92¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $13 +$7 +56%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $109 +$35 +32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $31 −$9 -27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 $0 +10%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 $0 +12%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $29 +$77 +262%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -40%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 $0 +31%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 $0 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +11%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 +$6 +160%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $52 −$3 -6%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 +$5 +22%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 $0 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$19 -93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $44 −$25 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 $0 +8%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +47%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $116 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 72¢ $117 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $119 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $23 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $140 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $144 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $1 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 93¢ $1 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.91 · official $249.93 (match) · 578 history records