Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fca…bfc1 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1
other 27% −$1
politics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 24 -4.5% -13.6% 58% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage472d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $44 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $84 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $44 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $2 $0 -19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $45 19m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $11 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $32 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $12 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $44 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $21 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $19 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $44 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $44 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $0 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $1 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $1 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $1 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $3 31d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 335d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? SELL No 98¢ $10 365d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? BUY No 96¢ $10 381d
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 381d
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 382d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records