Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8fca…dde6 crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$399 (-16%) realized −$370 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%10W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$202
14 days−$202
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$138
other 40% −$335
sports 4% −$26
world 2% −$27
economics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -55.7% -59.9% 5% 5% -33.2%
≤30d 22 -55.7% -59.9% 5% 5% -33.2%
≤90d 22 -55.7% -59.9% 5% 5% -33.2%
all 72 -30.2% -36.8% 14% 11% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 11% -28.8%
10% -42.9% 10% -35.6%
15% -48.4% 10% -41.8%
20% -53.5% 8% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$23 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$370
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses10 / 62
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage199d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+12%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $85 $50 −$35 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$24 -95%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $82 −$53 -64%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $77 −$53 -68%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$362 +705%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$42 -82%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$23 -88%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$14 -57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$17 -60%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$26 -86%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$20 -78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$22 -85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? Jan 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 3? Jan 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 3? Jan 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 2? Jan 01 $6 −$5 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 1? Jan 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 3 Dec 31 $49 −$23 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 29 $42 −$4 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 25 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $147 −$147 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $198 +$38 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Dec 24 $50 +$53 +106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 23 $50 −$44 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 22 $55 +$4 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Dec 22 $39 −$19 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Dec 21 $90 +$4 +5%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $10 +$68 +682%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 2m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $87 20m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 24m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $82 36m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 20h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 21h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $395 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 45h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.04 · official $101.04 (match) · 127 history records