Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8fcb…aa13 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-24%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$24
other 32% +$9
politics 19% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.5% -21.8% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤30d 3 -13.5% -21.8% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤90d 3 -13.5% -21.8% 33% 33% -20.0%
all 6 -42.3% -47.8% 17% 17% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 17% -39.6%
10% -52.8% 17% -45.3%
15% -57.4% 17% -50.6%
20% -61.6% 17% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage257d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 +$11 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 −$2 -11%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 17 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit? Oct 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $27 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 13h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 13h
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) BUY Top Esports 37¢ $9 253d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No 26¢ $9 253d
Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit? BUY No 0¢ $5 256d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 30¢ $10 256d
Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit? BUY No 0¢ $4 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.09 · official $26.09 (match) · 11 history records