Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8F 0x8fce…f423 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,477 (-22%) realized −$4,475 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%23W / 14L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$540per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$511
7 days−$4,058
14 days−$4,058
30 days−$4,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$3,786
sports 10% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -25.1% -32.3% 66% 28% -27.6%
≤30d 37 -26.3% -33.3% 62% 30% -27.6%
≤90d 37 -26.3% -33.3% 62% 30% -27.6%
all 37 -26.3% -33.3% 62% 30% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 30% -27.6%
10% -39.7% 14% -34.5%
15% -45.5% 14% -40.8%
20% -50.9% 3% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$395 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$4,475
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses23 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage27d
Avg bet$540
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,505 +$175 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,010 +$369 +18%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,203 +$112 +5%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$88 -86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,507 +$280 +19%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $174 −$170 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,004 +$147 +15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $206 +$76 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,652 −$4,620 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,002 +$64 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$4 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$14 -67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 0 US Sassuolo Calcio? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$4 +36%
Exact Score: Los Angeles Galaxy 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo? May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 22m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,680 31m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,405 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,378 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,010 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,203 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $612 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $320 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,191 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 46h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $282 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $206 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.24 · official $98.28 (match) · 84 history records