Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8fd1…d3c0 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$80
14 days+$94
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$98
other 8% −$2
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 42% +22.3%
≤30d 39 +2.6% -7.1% 46% 44% +21.2%
≤90d 39 +2.6% -7.1% 46% 44% +21.2%
all 39 +2.6% -7.1% 46% 44% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 44% +21.2%
10% -16.0% 44% +9.6%
15% -24.1% 44% -1.0%
20% -31.6% 41% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 50
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$23 +226%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 +$21 +139%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $13 +$9 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $9 +$7 +79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$21 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +259%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +74%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +158%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $37 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $15 12h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY 22¢ $5 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 21h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $6 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $5 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 67¢ $10 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $5 34h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $10 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $3 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $22 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 60¢ $10 35h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $13 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 46¢ $4 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $8 47h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $8 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.01 · official $30.01 · 90 history records