Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8F 0x8fd3…4d23 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+11%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.0% -1.4% 88% 62% -1.5%
≤30d 8 +9.0% -1.4% 88% 62% -1.5%
≤90d 8 +9.0% -1.4% 88% 62% -1.5%
all 8 +9.0% -1.4% 88% 62% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 62% -1.5%
10% -10.8% 25% -11.0%
15% -19.4% 25% -19.6%
20% -27.3% 12% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$25 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $47 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records