Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8F 0x8fd4…9cf7 sports 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$536 (+2%) realized +$635 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%142W / 182L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$315est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$748now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$466
14 days+$1,467
30 days+$2,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$2,519
other 13% −$780
crypto 9% −$6
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +6.1% -4.0% 34% 34% +8.5%
≤30d 146 +8.7% -1.7% 34% 32% +18.2%
≤90d 222 +4.5% -5.5% 38% 37% -2.9%
all 324 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 41% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 41% -3.7%
10% -16.1% 40% -12.9%
15% -24.2% 37% -21.3%
20% -31.7% 34% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$69 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$748
Realized+$635
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses142 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$315
Open positions10
Markets (closed)324 / 353
History coverage102d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $371 $298 −$73 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $108 $135 +$27 (+25%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 55¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 47¢ $52 $47 −$5 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $38 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $48 $38 −$10 (-22%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 32¢ $53 $32 −$22 (-41%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $44 $29 −$15 (-34%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $67 +$33 +50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $39 +$36 +93%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $45 +$55 +124%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $54 −$53 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $22 −$22 -98%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $14 −$14 -97%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $90 −$88 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $57 −$56 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $53 −$52 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $54 −$53 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (- Jun 25 $41 +$522 +1270%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $53 +$47 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$127 +250%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $33 +$67 +206%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $42 +$58 +140%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $45 +$55 +124%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $53 −$52 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $57 +$43 +76%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $54 −$53 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $47 −$46 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $75 −$74 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $81 +$69 +86%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $75 −$74 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $67 +$82 +122%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $60 +$40 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $14 +$36 +256%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $18 −$17 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $37 −$36 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $37 +$163 +441%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $17 −$16 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 −$34 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$30 +146%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $23 −$22 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $27 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $27 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $56 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $39 6h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY 29¢ $150 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY 28¢ $250 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 17¢ $50 26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $54 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 27h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $19 28h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $22 29h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $14 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 48¢ $75 29h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 29h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $5 29h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $90 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $57 30h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 30h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 30h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $53 30h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 12¢ $50 30h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $53 30h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 32h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $748.50 · official $1,140.21 · 1021 history records