Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8F 0x8fd6…bb32 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$50 (-1%) realized −$44 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$575per market

Trades / day15.0pace

Fees−$18est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+38.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+53.6%	+38.9%	67%	67%	+77.1%
≤30d	3	+53.6%	+38.9%	67%	67%	+77.1%
≤90d	3	+53.6%	+38.9%	67%	67%	+77.1%
all	3	+53.6%	+38.9%	67%	67%	+77.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.0 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+38.9%	67%	+77.1%
10% ← realistic here	+25.6%	67%	+60.1%
15%	+13.5%	67%	+44.6%
20%	+2.4%	67%	+30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +96% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +54% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,385 vs −$6 · ×223.11 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×446.23 per $1 lost it wins $446.23

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$344

Realized−$44

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$18

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$575

Trades / day15.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	34¢	50¢	$200	$297	+$97 (+49%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-7%)
Germany leading at halftime?	Yes	39¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?	Jun 29	$203	+$131	+65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$2,582	+$2,638	+102%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 29	$102	−$6	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	51¢	$296	3m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	23m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$408	45m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	76¢	$335	1h
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	45¢	$203	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	91¢	$5,220	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	23¢	$152	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$506	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	38¢	$96	5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	57¢	$152	10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,519	10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$152	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.62 · official $337.74 · 15 history records