Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fda…3fd7 other 389 markets active 0h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$826 (+3%) realized +$846 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%186W / 199L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$56
14 days+$89
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$490
world 21% +$245
sports 9% −$58
crypto 5% −$77
politics 1% +$84
economics 0% −$20
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +6.1% -4.0% 24% 16% -7.6%
≤30d 75 -6.3% -15.2% 29% 24% -4.0%
≤90d 268 +0.2% -9.4% 51% 31% -8.3%
all 385 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 29% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 29% -7.3%
10% -22.0% 17% -16.2%
15% -29.5% 10% -24.3%
20% -36.4% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$846
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses186 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)385 / 389
History coverage373d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $84 $74 −$10 (-12%)
Will Pluralis launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $47 $56 +$10 (+20%)
Will Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 85¢ 62¢ $20 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $18 $4 −$15 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 26 $31 −$1 -4%
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 26 $22 −$2 -8%
Will AVAX reach $9 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $46 −$10 -22%
Will Catena launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 26 $40 −$1 -3%
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 26 $207 −$5 -3%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -4%
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 26 $88 −$2 -2%
Will Betmoar launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 26 $28 −$1 -2%
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jun 25 $2 $0 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $28 −$7 -24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$12 +242%
Noble FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 25 $83 −$13 -16%
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 25 $18 $0 -2%
Multipli.fi FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 25 $8 $0 -3%
Will AVAX reach $8 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $6 +$2 +41%
Saturn FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Laso Finance FDV above $30M one day after launch Jun 24 $22 −$14 -64%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $11 $0 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $366 −$18 -5%
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 24 $77 +$62 +80%
Neutrl FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 24 $110 +$8 +8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $26 −$1 -4%
Multipli.fi FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 24 $17 $0 -1%
Saturn FDV above $1B one day after launch Jun 24 $18 $0 -1%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 24 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 24 $7 $0 -1%
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -46%
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch Jun 23 $283 −$24 -9%
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 23 $153 −$3 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 23 $112 −$1 -1%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $11 +$5 +47%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $11 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $207 −$17 -8%
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 -1%
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch? Jun 22 $356 +$76 +21%
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 22 $48 +$17 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$4 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$12 -81%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $144 +$32 +22%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$4 +15%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$5 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 9m
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 71¢ $35 57m
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 59m
Will Pluralis launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 63¢ $26 1h
Will Pluralis launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $31 1h
Will Pluralis launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 69¢ $63 1h
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 1h
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 1h
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 73¢ $29 1h
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 74¢ $29 1h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 2h
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 2h
Will AVAX reach $9 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2h
Will AVAX reach $9 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 2h
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 2h
Will AVAX reach $9 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 2h
Will Pluralis launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 86¢ $22 3h
Will Catena launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 85¢ $22 3h
Will Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 3h
Will Catena launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 3h
Will Catena launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 3h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL Yes 81¢ $21 3h
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $14 3h
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $79 3h
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $45 3h
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 3h
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 87¢ $79 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.28 · official $148.28 (match) · 2143 history records