Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fdf…8573 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,501 (-44%) realized −$1,506 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$11
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,462
other 13% −$76
politics 10% −$15
tech 6% $0
crypto 4% +$21
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 17% -4.8%
≤30d 11 -12.7% -21.0% 36% 9% -14.1%
≤90d 57 +22.6% +11.0% 30% 16% -17.2%
all 72 +12.0% +1.3% 32% 21% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 21% -52.7%
10% -8.4% 15% -57.3%
15% -17.2% 12% -61.4%
20% -25.3% 7% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$37 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$1,506
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 49
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage466d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 76¢ 84¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+10%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $44 −$10 -23%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $21 $0 -2%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $18 −$1 -5%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 23 $62 +$22 +35%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 23 $35 +$4 +10%
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 09 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 01 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 31 $9 −$5 -57%
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? May 30 $34 −$21 -63%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 29 $24 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 27 $32 +$5 +17%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 27 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? May 27 $14 −$1 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $125 +$22 +18%
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? May 26 $15 −$6 -41%
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? May 26 $19 −$2 -10%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? May 25 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? May 25 $25 −$3 -11%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o May 24 $26 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 24 $40 −$10 -24%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 24 $79 −$23 -29%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? May 24 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 24 $20 −$1 -7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 24 $24 −$7 -30%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $12 +$4 +37%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $20 −$13 -62%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? May 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 19 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 18 $11 −$5 -45%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $23 +$13 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? May 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? May 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 10 $36 −$4 -12%
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? May 07 $20 −$9 -45%
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026? May 07 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Ilya Sorokin win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? May 06 $12 −$7 -62%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? May 06 $16 −$5 -28%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1 $0 -18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $32 −$3 -8%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 06 $12 −$9 -78%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $12 +$5 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $22 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $25 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $24 3h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 80¢ $18 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $0 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $9 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $22 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $21 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $21 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 12¢ $16 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 69¢ $11 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 67¢ $12 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 4d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 4d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $20 5d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 5d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $17 5d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 68¢ $17 6d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $18 6d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 6d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $51 6d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.21 · official $71.21 (match) · 335 history records