Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fe2…3b79
other · 11 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$71 -61%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$76 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage177d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 1 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$59
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 −$48 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $21 −$17 -80%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Dec 19 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 90% −$70
crypto 5% −$3
sports 3% −$2
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 7h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 21h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 176d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 176d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 177d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 177d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 177d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 177d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 177d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -57.5% -61.5% 12% 12% -73.5%
≤30d 8 -57.5% -61.5% 12% 12% -73.5%
≤90d 8 -57.5% -61.5% 12% 12% -73.5%
all 10 -54.2% -58.5% 10% 10% -73.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.5% 10% -73.4%
10% -62.5% 10% -76.0%
15% -66.1% 10% -78.3%
20% -69.4% 10% -80.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.19 · official $8.19 (match) · 33 history records