Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fe3…1e24 crypto 1740 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate84%1461W / 279L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$81
14 days−$129
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 33% -11.7%
≤30d 878 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 37% -9.5%
≤90d 1740 +0.2% -9.4% 84% 39% -9.6%
all 1740 +0.2% -9.4% 84% 39% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 39% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1461 / 279
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1740 / 1740
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1740 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records