Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fe4…5390 other 12 markets active 2d ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$268 (-60%) realized −$268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$249
politics 24% −$109
sports 17% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.6% +9.2% 44% 44% -38.6%
≤30d 9 +20.6% +9.2% 44% 44% -38.6%
≤90d 12 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% -64.3%
all 12 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% -64.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 33% -64.3%
10% -25.3% 33% -67.7%
15% -32.5% 33% -70.9%
20% -39.1% 33% -73.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$45 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage116d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$9 +93%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -74%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$19 +364%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$29 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 10, 2026? Apr 04 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Mar 24 $101 −$101 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Mar 24 $90 −$81 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $9 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 77d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 88d
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad BUY No 1¢ $1 115d
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad BUY No 22¢ $100 115d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $90 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records