Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fe6…9634 other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$196 · open −$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$2,196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$11
14 days−$9
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$88
other 12% +$6
world 8% −$82
crypto 2% −$5
sports 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +6.5% -3.6% 37% 33% -10.4%
≤30d 34 +4.6% -5.4% 38% 29% -10.2%
≤90d 34 +4.6% -5.4% 38% 29% -10.2%
all 34 +4.6% -5.4% 38% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 29% -10.2%
10% -14.5% 21% -18.8%
15% -22.7% 12% -26.7%
20% -30.3% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2,196
Realized+$196
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage38d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2,106 $1,990 −$116 (-6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 49¢ 48¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $71 $35 −$36 (-51%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 37¢ 22¢ $36 $21 −$15 (-42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $30 $10 −$20 (-66%)
Will Endrick win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $84 −$28 -34%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $48 −$5 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $173 −$3 -2%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 22 $151 −$49 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $151 +$37 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $112 +$26 +23%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $56 +$32 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $11 −$4 -40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $93 +$12 +13%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $95 −$13 -13%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $96 −$17 -18%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $25 +$22 +87%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $46 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 25 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $55 0m
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $43 1m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 5m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 7m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 45¢ $25 10m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 10m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 23m
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 23m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 24m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 45m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $18 49m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 48¢ $47 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 48¢ $14 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 48¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $15 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $31 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 49¢ $4 9h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $38 11h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $6 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,196.36 · official $2,196.36 (match) · 655 history records