Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8fe6…7027 sports 51 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$64,395 (+34%) realized +$80,724 · open −$16,329
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%30W / 20L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$3,691per market
Trades / day58.3pace
Fees−$2,266est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$2,379
other 8% +$44,019
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +23.1% +11.4% 60% 56% +23.5%
≤30d 50 +23.1% +11.4% 60% 56% +23.5%
≤90d 50 +23.1% +11.4% 60% 56% +23.5%
all 50 +23.1% +11.4% 60% 56% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.4% 56% +23.5%
10% +0.7% 54% +11.7%
15% ← realistic here -9.0% 40% +0.9%
20% -18.0% 32% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$4,671) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,768 vs −$2,515 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$80,724
Unrealized−$16,329
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses30 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$2,266
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3,691
Trades / day58.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 76¢ 0¢ $16,340 $11 −$16,329 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,422 −$3,422 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11,564 +$22,414 +194%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,308 +$21,606 +653%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4,318 +$682 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,854 −$2,670 -94%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3,324 +$1,934 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $4,671 −$4,671 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $5,934 +$1,741 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,592 −$1,592 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5,355 −$5,355 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9,665 +$5,942 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,969 +$8,209 +207%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9,845 +$4,869 +50%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,753 +$496 +28%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,833 +$517 +28%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,563 −$1,563 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,631 −$2,631 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5,082 −$5,082 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,004 −$2,002 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,118 −$3,118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $59 +$20 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $7,137 +$616 +9%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,725 +$1,075 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $876 +$3,188 +364%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,515 +$3,236 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,846 +$2,099 +114%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $4,214 −$4,024 -96%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $855 +$1,143 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8,058 +$2,934 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,226 +$3,083 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $773 −$773 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5,751 +$2,248 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $701 +$202 +29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,962 −$2,943 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $3,368 −$3,368 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $635 +$395 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3,166 −$3,166 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $668 −$668 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,157 +$8,655 +141%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3,802 +$3,238 +85%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7,482 +$6,717 +90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,064 −$1,064 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $429 −$429 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,661 +$1,453 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $3,755 +$1,845 +49%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $3,132 +$1,068 +34%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $666 +$1,351 +203%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $1,768 −$1,763 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 09 $1,616 +$55 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $16,340 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $33,978 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $6,804 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $24,914 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $676 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $4,084 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $180 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1,521 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1,018 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $293 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $4 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $4 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $7 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $15 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $6 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $65 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $2 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $39 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $0 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $67 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.75 · official $10.75 (match) · 441 history records