Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8fe7…4f20 sports 647 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103,015 (-21%) realized −$70,571 · open −$32,444
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%284W / 587L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$774per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$2,915est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$15,583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$45,483
sports 37% +$15,377
crypto 8% +$18,238
world 1% −$6,281
finance 1% −$2,748
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 311 -89.8% -90.8% 3% 3% -97.4%
≤30d 521 -46.5% -51.6% 22% 22% -66.9%
≤90d 871 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 32% -39.2%
all 871 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 32% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.6% 32% -39.2%
10% -40.0% 29% -45.0%
15% ← realistic here -45.8% 23% -50.3%
20% -51.1% 19% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,041) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$700 vs −$737 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$15,583
Realized−$70,571
Unrealized−$32,444
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses284 / 587
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$2,915
Open positions56
Markets (closed)871 / 647
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$774
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 871 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 32¢ 44¢ $949 $1,335 +$386 (+41%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $1,500 $1,300 −$200 (-13%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 52¢ $1,120 $1,030 −$90 (-8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $890 $885 −$5 (-1%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $1,649 $760 −$889 (-54%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 57¢ 60¢ $690 $726 +$36 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $628 $635 +$7 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $640 $635 −$5 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $570 $565 −$5 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $570 $565 −$5 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $542 $525 −$17 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $490 $485 −$5 (-1%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $595 $484 −$111 (-19%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $492 $475 −$17 (-3%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $382 $394 +$12 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $354 $354 +$0 (+0%)
Megaquake by June 30? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $2,041 $327 −$1,714 (-84%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 38¢ $312 $308 −$4 (-1%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $684 $258 −$426 (-62%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 60¢ 20¢ $763 $247 −$515 (-68%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Yes 37¢ 2¢ $4,398 $242 −$4,156 (-94%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $2,980 $231 −$2,749 (-92%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes 47¢ 3¢ $3,724 $215 −$3,510 (-94%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 8¢ $562 $210 −$352 (-63%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $183 $196 +$13 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 444 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jun 17 $475 −$475 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 10? Jun 17 $857 −$857 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 17? Jun 17 $3,014 −$3,014 -100%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30? Jun 17 $798 −$798 -100%
Will SSC Bari vs. FC Südtirol end in a draw? Jun 17 $495 −$495 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-07? Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Romuald Wadagni be the next President of Benin? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,885 −$1,885 -100%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,158 −$1,158 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 30 Jun 17 $1,624 −$1,624 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 27? Jun 17 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? Jun 17 $971 −$795 -82%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on January 30? Jun 17 $1,699 −$1,699 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $495 −$495 -100%
Will SSC Bari win on 2026-03-04? Jun 17 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? Jun 17 $753 −$753 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 3? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sevilla FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$41 -136%
Will Torino FC vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Russia capture Toretske by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $178 −$178 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 31? Jun 17 $1,588 −$1,588 -100%
Will Carrarese Calcio vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Jun 17 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 Jun 17 $660 −$660 -100%
Will CA Huracán vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,190 −$1,190 -100%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-03-22? Jun 17 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-03-14? Jun 17 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Will CD Riestra vs. Instituto AC Córdoba end in a draw? Jun 17 $930 −$930 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Jun 17 $263 −$263 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $435 −$435 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jun 17 $220 −$240 -109%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 17 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw? Jun 17 $475 −$475 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 17 $905 −$905 -100%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-04-04? Jun 17 $963 −$963 -100%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30? Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-06? Jun 17 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by March 31? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 17 $310 −$320 -103%
Will CA Lanús vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,679 −$1,679 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 6? Jun 17 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukra Jun 17 $1,651 −$1,651 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $647 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $577 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $497 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $893 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $577 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $318 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $195 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $259 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $215 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 12¢ $127 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 21¢ $458 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $178 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $352 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $268 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $147 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $178 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $196 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $117 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $208 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 13¢ $117 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 12¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 12¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 11¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 11¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 11¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 11¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 11¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 11¢ $22 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 11¢ $19 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,583.13 · official $15,583.33 (match) · 3500 history records