Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fe7…6c1f
other · 944 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$13,912 +87%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,734 · open +$1,247
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,001
Realized+$1,734
Unrealized+$1,247
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses482 / 84
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions500
Markets (closed)566 / 944
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day509.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 500 History 566 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$887
7 days+$1,734
14 days+$1,734
30 days+$1,734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 76¢ $331 $340 +$9 (+3%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $239 $261 +$22 (+9%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $238 $258 +$20 (+8%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 40¢ 96¢ $99 $239 +$140 (+142%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $162 $166 +$5 (+3%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 52¢ $203 $148 −$55 (-27%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 61¢ 68¢ $127 $141 +$14 (+11%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $129 $140 +$11 (+8%)
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 46¢ $70 $129 +$59 (+85%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 23¢ 31¢ $92 $126 +$34 (+36%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 18¢ 66¢ $28 $107 +$78 (+277%)
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 50¢ 48¢ $101 $95 −$6 (-6%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 38¢ 48¢ $76 $94 +$19 (+25%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 23¢ 45¢ $44 $88 +$44 (+99%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $74 $88 +$14 (+19%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $64 $79 +$16 (+24%)
Spread: Club ABB (-1.5) Bamin Real Potosí 70¢ 49¢ $112 $79 −$33 (-30%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $64 $75 +$10 (+16%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $86 $69 −$18 (-21%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 66¢ $48 $66 +$19 (+39%)
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $98 $64 −$33 (-34%)
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $49 $63 +$14 (+29%)
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 43¢ 86¢ $31 $62 +$31 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $13 +$7 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -31%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -27%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $59 +$5 +9%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $52 +$17 +33%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $34 −$19 -55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$8 -33%
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 +$5 +38%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +79%
Will Iran record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 −$7 -49%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$8 +237%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $45 +$18 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +48%
Will Victor Wembanyama record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Jun 14 $43 +$7 +17%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +105%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $14 +$2 +13%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 +$12 +59%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 Jun 14 $12 +$10 +86%
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Georgia win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$14 +216%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +76%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +66%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 +$10 +3233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$1,329
sports 41% +$1,495
weather 4% +$86
tech 1% +$32
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
politics 1% +$25
culture 1% +$14
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 85¢ $9 9m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No 29¢ $3 10m
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Giron BUY Hijikata 58¢ $3 11m
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Giron BUY Hijikata 58¢ $12 11m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 12m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $0 12m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 75¢ $8 13m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 16m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $0 16m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 16m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $0 16m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 18m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $0 18m
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Cataluny SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Valtteri Bottas achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Lance Stroll achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Oliver Bearman achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Franco Colapinto achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Fernando Alonso achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gr SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Pierre Gasly achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Nico Hulkenberg achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Arvid Lindblad achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Alexander Albon achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Liam Lawson achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Sergio Perez achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G SELL Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 566 +40.5% +27.1% 85% 52% +6.5%
≤30d 566 +40.5% +27.1% 85% 52% +6.5%
≤90d 566 +40.5% +27.1% 85% 52% +6.5%
all 566 +40.5% +27.1% 85% 52% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover509.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.1% 52% +6.5%
10% ← realistic here +14.9% 37% -3.7%
15% +3.8% 27% -13.0%
20% -6.3% 19% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,000.73 · official $7,135.72 · 3500 history records