trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 13 | $2 | +$3 | +174% |
| Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $3 | $0 | -6% |
| Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $3 | $0 | -6% |
| Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | May 02 | $5 | −$2 | -32% |
| Will PH win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Repr | Apr 30 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Apr 30 | $14 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | Apr 11 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb | Apr 09 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 09 | $250 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec | Apr 07 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Apr 02 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Mar 31 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Mar 31 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Mar 28 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Mar 28 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Mar 28 | $283 | −$1 | -0% |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Mar 23 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Mar 19 | $3 | $0 | +12% |
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Mar 19 | $120 | −$1 | -1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +21.7% | +10.1% | 17% | 17% | +10.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +18.2% | +7.0% | 14% | 14% | +2.7% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 39% | 9% | -9.7% |
| all | 25 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 44% | 8% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.0% | 8% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -14.1% | 4% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -22.4% | 4% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -30.0% | 4% | -33.5% |