Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8fe9…1e73 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+12%) realized +$49 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$10
sports 45% +$17
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.7% -2.6% 42% 42% +3.3%
≤30d 12 +7.7% -2.6% 42% 42% +3.3%
≤90d 12 +7.7% -2.6% 42% 42% +3.3%
all 12 +7.7% -2.6% 42% 42% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 42% +3.3%
10% -11.9% 33% -6.6%
15% -20.4% 33% -15.6%
20% -28.2% 33% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$20 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$54 +262%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$41 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$51 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 13h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.45 · official $37.45 (match) · 19 history records