Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8feb…63fc sports 493 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,309 (-3%) realized −$4,319 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%277W / 209L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$522est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$1,156
14 days−$902
30 days−$751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$4,743
other 6% +$746
politics 1% −$84
crypto 0% −$214
economics 0% +$108
world 0% −$59
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.5% -22.7% 43% 21% -54.7%
≤30d 56 -0.5% -10.0% 61% 29% -12.5%
≤90d 142 +4.8% -5.2% 60% 42% -10.0%
all 486 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 38% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 38% -12.6%
10% -22.4% 34% -21.0%
15% -29.9% 31% -28.6%
20% -36.8% 28% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$122 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized−$4,319
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses277 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$522
Open positions4
Markets (closed)486 / 493
History coverage233d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $160 $136 −$24 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 46¢ 58¢ $93 $117 +$24 (+26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $54 +$14 (+36%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $169 +$6 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $41 +$59 +144%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $55 +$45 +82%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $170 −$143 -84%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $86 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1,368 −$948 -69%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $77 +$11 +14%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $130 −$128 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$68 +212%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $280 +$2 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,811 −$44 -2%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $250 +$200 +80%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $121 +$61 +50%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $91 +$141 +156%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,768 $0 -0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $135 +$16 +12%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $1,041 +$752 +72%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $116 −$16 -14%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $950 +$9 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $38 +$1 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 27 $370 +$65 +18%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $51 −$43 -84%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 26 $855 +$9 +1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 26 $29 $0 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1,872 −$1,014 -54%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 25 $1,518 +$245 +16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner May 24 $44 +$56 +127%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $54 +$46 +85%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $54 +$46 +85%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $33 +$1 +3%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $62 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $207 +$193 +93%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) May 24 $62 +$42 +68%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 24 $1,136 +$112 +10%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $1,103 +$14 +1%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 23 $1,461 −$361 -25%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $2,518 +$226 +9%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 23 $312 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 38¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $51 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 50¢ $50 16h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $36 16h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $58 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $35 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $9 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $102 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $46 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 59¢ $59 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $100 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $41 26h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 32h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $100 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 55¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 55¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 55¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 55¢ $3 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $99 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 51¢ $86 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 22¢ $304 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 22¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 38¢ $10 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 38¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.50 · official $299.50 · 2688 history records