Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8feb…9233 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$14
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$27
other 30% −$2
politics 10% −$7
sports 9% −$1
crypto 8% +$1
finance 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 31 -3.4% -12.6% 42% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 43 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 2% -9.8%
all 46 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage100d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $290 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $145 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $403 −$17 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $148 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $148 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $187 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $148 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $398 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $66 +$4 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $131 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $241 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $130 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $131 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $144 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $160 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $142 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $534 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $130 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $287 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $142 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $129 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $141 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $126 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $146 +$6 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $135 −$14 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $115 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $138 −$6 -4%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $67 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $297 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 27 $3 $0 +12%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $94 −$5 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $669 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,016 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 20 $901 +$1 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $900 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $145 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $145 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $112 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $111 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $90 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $145 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $144 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $145 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $131 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $134 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $148 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $148 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $148 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $148 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $23 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $52 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $134 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $98 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $142 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $148 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $18 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $14 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.92 · official $57.33 · 181 history records