Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8F 0x8fed…c228 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-2%) realized −$45 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$269
7 days−$491
14 days−$571
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$678
other 14% −$250
crypto 6% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -40.7% -46.4% 26% 26% -28.1%
≤30d 24 -39.6% -45.3% 25% 25% -26.8%
≤90d 26 -39.7% -45.5% 27% 27% -26.5%
all 30 -23.6% -30.8% 30% 30% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 30% -28.8%
10% -37.5% 23% -35.6%
15% -43.5% 23% -41.9%
20% -49.0% 17% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$64 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage226d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 38¢ 31¢ $115 $94 −$21 (-19%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $201 −$67 -33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$196 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 −$118 -59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $212 −$84 -40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $245 +$144 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $202 −$125 -62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$54 +54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $301 +$37 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$12 -41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$6 -20%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$49 +48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$25 -48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $81 −$4 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $67 −$65 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $601 −$81 -13%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $50 +$9 +17%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $946 −$350 -37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $40 +$97 +241%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $40 +$114 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 38¢ $117 6m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 14m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 53¢ $134 47m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over $7 49m
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $5 51m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 36¢ $83 51m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $127 56m
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $212 10h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $201 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $201 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 82¢ $102 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $287 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $77 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $245 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $155 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $338 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $301 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 37h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 41h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 41h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $25 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 42h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $150 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.08 · official $114.13 (match) · 71 history records