Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fee…7e03 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,832 (-20%) realized −$23,748 · open −$84
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,509per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$1,267est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$7,831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,322
7 days−$1,322
14 days−$24,166
30 days−$24,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$4,961
other 29% −$17,770
world 2% −$1,519
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +91.3% +73.1% 55% 55% -10.6%
≤30d 25 +55.9% +41.1% 44% 44% -29.6%
≤90d 25 +55.9% +41.1% 44% 44% -29.6%
all 25 +55.9% +41.1% 44% 44% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.1% 44% -29.6%
10% +27.6% 44% -36.3%
15% ← realistic here +15.3% 40% -42.5%
20% +4.0% 32% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$6,291) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -67% → late +169% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,109 vs −$4,169 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$7,831
Realized−$23,748
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$1,267
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage13d
Avg bet$4,509
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $7,915 $7,831 −$84 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $600 +$8,710 +1452%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $4,045 +$1,537 +38%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $3,000 +$2,000 +67%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $2,550 +$1,308 +51%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $6,291 +$3,302 +52%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $2,800 +$7,097 +254%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1,351 +$976 +72%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,800 +$2,200 +79%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $600 +$2,400 +400%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11,695 −$11,531 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 27 $330 −$330 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,430 −$1,400 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $5,196 +$1,680 +32%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $8,120 −$8,040 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $14,044 −$8,696 -62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,240 −$1,519 -68%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $7,000 +$2,990 +43%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $1,400 −$334 -24%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $2,750 −$137 -5%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $4,526 −$3,536 -78%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,603 −$3,603 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,400 −$2,678 -61%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,886 −$5,506 -80%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,800 −$3,314 -87%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $7,742 −$7,742 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $8,041 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 54¢ $454 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 54¢ $282 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 54¢ $73 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $131 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $1,727 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,550 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $0 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $18 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $2 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $0 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $568 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $4 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $4 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $1 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes $3 3h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 60¢ $3,000 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $382 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $977 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $0 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $18 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $31 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $87 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $58 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $35 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,959 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $105 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,831.05 · official $7,831.05 (match) · 315 history records