Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8F 0x8ff2…8ea1 sports 194 markets active 3d ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,176 (-1%) realized −$1,176 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%105W / 89L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1,039est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,925
14 days−$243
30 days−$4,599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,757
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +31.5% +19.0% 68% 68% -44.0%
≤30d 62 +24.8% +12.9% 65% 65% -20.6%
≤90d 194 +3.1% -6.7% 54% 54% -11.5%
all 194 +3.1% -6.7% 54% 54% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 54% -11.5%
10% -15.7% 54% -20.0%
15% -23.8% 48% -27.7%
20% -31.3% 40% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$288 vs −$360 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses105 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,039
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage82d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Bellucci Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Altmaier vs Kovacevic Jun 23 $23 +$15 +66%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $16 +$8 +47%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $6 +$10 +165%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $3 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage Jun 20 $1 +$1 +64%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $53 +$90 +170%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $37 +$16 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $16 +$21 +130%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$10 +158%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $537 +$34 +6%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$12 +80%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $952 −$943 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $5,042 −$5,000 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $1,020 +$483 +47%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,931 +$1,507 +51%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $89 +$344 +386%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $1,019 +$1,636 +161%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $707 +$338 +48%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $913 +$841 +92%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $496 +$429 +86%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $509 −$500 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $304 +$203 +67%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $463 +$350 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $808 −$799 -99%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $455 +$853 +187%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $655 −$650 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $503 +$107 +21%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $200 −$198 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $404 +$376 +93%
Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs Bellucci Jun 18 $203 +$190 +94%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $354 +$360 +102%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $286 +$69 +24%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $202 +$84 +42%
Set 1 Winner: Golubic vs Sonmez Jun 18 $223 −$220 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $71 −$69 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $54 +$17 +31%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $40 +$14 +35%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group S May 31 $40 +$22 +55%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner May 27 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin May 27 $67 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $706 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner May 27 $204 +$543 +266%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Bellucci BUY Bellucci 47¢ $39 2d
Set 2 Winner: Altmaier vs Kovacevic SELL Altmaier 99¢ $39 2d
Set 2 Winner: Altmaier vs Kovacevic BUY Altmaier 59¢ $23 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Daniel Altmaier 79¢ $24 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 53¢ $16 2d
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $16 2d
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 37¢ $6 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 100¢ $5 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 65¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $1 5d
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage SELL LGD NBW 100¢ $2 5d
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage BUY LGD NBW 60¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $51 6d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 60¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $144 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $53 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $53 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $37 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $38 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 38¢ $6 6d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $27 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $27 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $15 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $952 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 72¢ $4,883 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 85¢ $159 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $1,503 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $4,438 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 321 history records