Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8ff2…54b8 crypto 1179 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$330 (-4%) realized −$315 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%763W / 403L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$57
14 days+$49
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$33
sports 33% −$322
other 4% +$28
finance 1% −$7
politics 1% −$8
weather 1% −$3
world 1% +$10
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 +8.1% -2.2% 48% 47% -5.3%
≤30d 494 -6.3% -15.3% 56% 35% -10.9%
≤90d 1166 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 33% -12.4%
all 1166 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 33% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 21% -20.7%
15% -27.8% 15% -28.4%
20% -34.9% 11% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses763 / 403
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1166 / 1179
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 37¢ 24¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 60¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner TEAM VISION 78¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Down 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 40¢ 8¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-79%)
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 24, 3PM ET? Yes 62¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 29¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$47 +1699%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Valorant: ARETE vs So:sweet - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $7 +$3 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$18 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$4 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +47%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$4 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 24, 10AM ET? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
BNB Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $3 +$2 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$4 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$4 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$4 +306%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$3 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$4 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 78¢ $4 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 24, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 32m
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 41m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 41m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 49m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.93 · official $45.23 (match) · 3500 history records