Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8ff4…5607 crypto 482 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,251 (-5%) realized −$2,251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%269W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$130
14 days−$436
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,559
other 3% −$124
weather 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.6% +4.6% 100% 60% +5.1%
≤30d 80 +0.5% -9.1% 70% 54% -10.2%
≤90d 111 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 47% -12.2%
all 482 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 44% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 44% -15.0%
10% -24.7% 34% -23.1%
15% -32.0% 26% -30.5%
20% -38.7% 21% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$54 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses269 / 213
Open positions0
Markets (closed)482 / 482
History coverage116d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 482 Trades
no open positions (102 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $167 +$44 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $146 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$17 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $189 +$41 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $72 −$27 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $141 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 07 $121 +$23 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $187 −$156 -84%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $63 +$20 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $156 −$150 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $144 +$76 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $154 +$23 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $153 +$53 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 06 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 06 $151 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 06 $152 +$43 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 06 $52 +$75 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 06 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $153 +$46 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $202 +$33 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$42 +81%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $151 +$12 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $87 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $155 −$104 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $42 −$21 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 04 $77 −$72 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $75 +$119 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$65 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 04 $74 +$35 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $204 −$200 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $121 +$70 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 04 $334 −$225 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$51 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 03 $156 +$203 +130%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$26 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 02 $147 +$105 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 02 $125 +$76 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $155 −$144 -93%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $201 +$11 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $229 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $189 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $29 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $156 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $23 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $84 10d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $83 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1319 history records