Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8F 0x8ff5…5095 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$48 (+7%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days+$26
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 +24.9% +13.0% 73% 64% -7.9%
≤90d 11 +24.9% +13.0% 73% 64% -7.9%
all 11 +24.9% +13.0% 73% 64% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 64% -7.9%
10% +2.2% 64% -16.7%
15% -7.7% 64% -24.7%
20% -16.7% 45% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$75 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage24d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$32 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 06 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $141 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $144 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $171 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records