Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8ff6…e6c6 crypto 1648 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$144 (-5%) realized −$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate49%809W / 838L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$41
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -6.1% -15.0% 63% 40% -15.2%
≤30d 713 -8.1% -16.9% 57% 43% -20.7%
≤90d 1647 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 35% -18.4%
all 1647 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 35% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 35% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 19% -26.2%
15% -32.0% 8% -33.4%
20% -38.7% 1% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses809 / 838
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1647 / 1648
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 71¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.13 (match) · 3500 history records