Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8ffd…aa66 other 36 markets active 5d ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$3
politics 30% −$5
sports 13% −$2
tech 12% +$29
crypto 7% −$2
world 6% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +2.3% -7.4% 26% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -16.3% 3% -18.1%
15% -24.4% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$609) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage204d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 18 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 18 $751 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $754 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $107 +$1 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $679 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $604 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 20 $605 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 19 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $609 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 20 $72 +$5 +7%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 29 $70 +$2 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 18 $64 +$6 +10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $25 +$16 +61%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 01 $25 $0 +1%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $109 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $105 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $106 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $108 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 6d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $104 6d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $104 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $108 27d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $746 30d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $747 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $749 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $750 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $749 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $750 30d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $750 30d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $751 30d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $750 30d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $751 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $752 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $753 30d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $753 30d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $754 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $107 55d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $601 58d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $602 58d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $602 58d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $604 58d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $604 58d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $605 58d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $605 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.23 · official $109.23 (match) · 77 history records