Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9002…79f4 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$20
sports 30% −$65
other 14% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -11.9% -20.3% 49% 46% -11.9%
≤30d 59 -11.9% -20.3% 49% 46% -11.9%
≤90d 59 -11.9% -20.3% 49% 46% -11.9%
all 59 -11.9% -20.3% 49% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 46% -11.9%
10% -27.9% 44% -20.3%
15% -34.9% 36% -28.0%
20% -41.3% 25% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$30 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $77 +$30 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$58 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $15 −$10 -63%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$48 -94%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $40 +$10 +26%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$33 +319%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$48 -94%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$15 +50%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$30 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$20 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $32 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records